Description: The purpose of the SOA project Modeling Long Term Healthcare Cost Trends for Valuation is to provide a benchmark projection of medical cost increases and provide a user-firendly model for making alternative projections. This paper presents sample output from the model, technical documentation of the model, FAQs, and a review of the literature and references.

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: Responds to questions received during the webcast with regards to modeling long term medical trends for valuation purposes. Questions cover testing the model against publicly traded companies, the calculation of growth rate in the model, the income multiplier as the population ages, model relevance to Canada, factoring in of extra disease burdens, exclusion of aging in the model, and the effect of the globalization of health care.

Description: The focus of the webcast on Modeling Long–Term Medical Trends for Valuation Purposes was a discussion of the underlying methodology of the model, a walk through of the actual model, and a review of the considerations for its practical usage by actuaries. The running time of this video is 1 hour and 3 minutes. It is a presentation of slides without audio.